Citation
Mathis, Sarabeth M.; Webber, Alexander E.; León, Tomás M.; Murray, Erin L.; Sun, Monica; White, Lauren A.; Brooks, Logan C.; Green, Alden; Hu, Addison J.; & McDonald, Daniel J., et al. (Preprint). Evaluation of Flusight Influenza Forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 Seasons with a New Target Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Hospitalizations. medRxiv. PMCID: PMC10760285Abstract
Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons. Forecast skill was evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperformed the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble was the 2 (nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5 (th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degraded over longer forecast horizons and during periods of rapid change. Current influenza forecasting efforts help inform situational awareness, but research is needed to address limitations, including decreased performance during periods of changing epidemic dynamics.URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.08.23299726Reference Type
Journal ArticleYear Published
PreprintJournal Title
medRxivAuthor(s)
Mathis, Sarabeth M.Webber, Alexander E.
León, Tomás M.
Murray, Erin L.
Sun, Monica
White, Lauren A.
Brooks, Logan C.
Green, Alden
Hu, Addison J.
McDonald, Daniel J.
Rosenfeld, Roni
Shemetov, Dmitry
Tibshirani, Ryan J.
Kandula, Sasikiran
Pei, Sen
Shaman, Jeffrey
Yaari, Rami
Yamana, Teresa K.
Agarwal, Pulak
Balusu, Srikar
Gururajan, Gautham
Kamarthi, Harshavardhan
Prakash, B. Aditya
Raman, Rishi
Rodríguez, Alexander
Zhao, Zhiyuan
Meiyappan, Akilan
Omar, Shalina
Baccam, Prasith
Gurung, Heidi L.
Stage, Steve A.
Suchoski, Brad T.
Ajelli, Marco
Kummer, Allisandra G.
Litvinova, Maria
Ventura, Paulo C.
Wadsworth, Spencer
Niemi, Jarad
Carcelen, Erica
Hill, Alison L.
Jung, Sung-Mok
Lemaitre, Joseph C.
Lessler, Justin
Loo, Sara L.
McKee, Clifton D.
Sato, Koji
Smith, Claire P.
Truelove, Shaun
McAndrew, Thomas
Ye, Wenxuan
Bosse, Nikos I.
Hlavacek, William S.
Lin, Yen Ting
Mallela, Abhishek
Chen, Ye
Lamm, Shelby M.
Lee, Jaechoul
Posner, Richard G.
Perofsky, Amanda C.
Viboud, Cécile
Clemente, Leonardo
Lu, Fred
Meyer, Austin G.
Santillana, Mauricio
Chinazzi, Matteo
Davis, Jessica T.
Mu, Kunpeng
Pastore Y Piontti, Ana
Vespignani, Alessandro
Xiong, Xinyue
Ben-Nun, Michal
Riley, Pete
Turtle, James A.
Hulme-Lowe, Chis
Jessa, Shakeel
Nagraj, V. P.
Turner, Stephen D.
Williams, Desiree
Basu, Avranil
Drake, John M.
Fox, Spencer J.
Gibson, Graham C.
Suez, Ehsan
Thommes, Edward W.
Cojocaru, Monica G.
Cramer, Estee Y.
Gerding, Aaron
Stark, Ariane
Ray, Evan L.
Reich, Nicholas G.
Shandross, Li
Wattanachit, Nutcha
Wang, Yijin
Zorn, Martha W.
Aawar, Majd Al
Srivastava, Ajitesh
Meyers, Lauren A.
Adiga, Aniruddha
Hurt, Benjamin
Kaur, Gursharn
Lewis, Bryan L.
Marathe, Madhav
Venkatramanan, Srinivasan
Butler, Patrick
Farabow, Andrew
Muralidhar, Nikhil
Ramakrishnan, Naren
Reed, Carrie
Biggerstaff, Matthew
Borchering, Rebecca K.