Citation
Budhathoki, Sanjeev; Diergaarde, Brenda; Liu, Geoffrey; Olshan, Andrew F.; Ness, Andrew R.; Waterboer, Tim; Virani, Shama; Basta, Patricia V.; Bender, Noemi; & Brenner, Nicole, et al. (2023). A Risk Prediction Model for Head and Neck Cancers Incorporating Lifestyle Factors, HPV Serology and Genetic Markers. International Journal of Cancer, 152(10), 2069-2080. PMCID: PMC10006331Abstract
Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers, and genetic markers. A total of 10,126 head and neck cancer cases and 5,254 controls from 5 North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC=0.94, 95%CI=0.92-0.95 in men and AUC=0.92, 95%CI=0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity, and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.34444Reference Type
Journal ArticleYear Published
2023Journal Title
International Journal of CancerAuthor(s)
Budhathoki, SanjeevDiergaarde, Brenda
Liu, Geoffrey
Olshan, Andrew F.
Ness, Andrew R.
Waterboer, Tim
Virani, Shama
Basta, Patricia V.
Bender, Noemi
Brenner, Nicole
Dudding, Tom
Hayes, Neil
Hope, Andrew
Huang, Shao H.
Hueniken, Katrina
Kanterewicz, Beatriz
McKay, James D.
Pring, Miranda
Thomas, Steve
Wisniewski, Kathy
Thomas, Sera
Brhane, Yonathan
Agudo, Antonio
Alemany, Laia
Lagiou, Areti
Barzan, Luigi
Canova, Cristina
Conway, David I.
Healy, Claire M.
Holcatova, Ivana
Lagiou, Pagona
Macfarlane, Gary J.
Macfarlane, Tatiana V.
Polesel, Jerry
Richiardi, Lorenzo
Robinson, Max
Znaor, Ariana
Brennan, Paul
Hung, Rayjean J.