Citation
Cramer, Estee Y.; Ray, Evan L.; Lopez, Velma K.; Bracher, Johannes; Brennen, Andrea C.; Rivadeneira, Alvaro J.; Gerding, Aaron; Gneiting, Tilmann; House, Katie H.; & Huang, Yuxin, et al. (2022). Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(15), e2113561119. PMCID: PMC9169655Abstract
Significance: This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States.Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.
URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119Reference Type
Journal ArticleYear Published
2022Journal Title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaAuthor(s)
Cramer, Estee Y.Ray, Evan L.
Lopez, Velma K.
Bracher, Johannes
Brennen, Andrea C.
Rivadeneira, Alvaro J.
Gerding, Aaron
Gneiting, Tilmann
House, Katie H.
Huang, Yuxin
Jayawardena, Dasuni
Kanji, Abdul H.
Khandelwal, Ayush
Le, Khoa
Mühlemann, Anja
Niemi, Jarad
Shah, Apurv
Stark, Ariane
Wang, Yijin
Wattanachit, Nutcha
Zorn, Martha W.
Gu, Youyang
Jain, Sansiddh
Bannur, Nayana
Deva, Ayush
Kulkarni, Mihir
Merugu, Srujana
Raval, Alpan
Shingi, Siddhant
Tiwari, Avtansh
White, Jerome
Abernethy, Neil F.
Woody, Spencer
Dahan, Maytal
Fox, Spencer
Gaither, Kelly
Lachmann, Michael
Meyers, Lauren A.
Scott, James G.
Tec, Mauricio
Srivastava, Ajitesh
George, Glover E.
Cegan, Jeffrey C.
Dettwiller, Ian D.
England, William P.
Farthing, Matthew W.
Hunter, Robert H.
Lafferty, Brandon
Linkov, Igor
Mayo, Michael L.
Parno, Matthew D.
Rowland, Michael A.
Trump, Benjamin D.
Zhang-James, Yanli
Chen, Samuel
Faraone, Stephen V.
Hess, Jonathan
Morley, Christopher P.
Salekin, Asif
Wang, Dongliang
Corsetti, Sabrina M.
Baer, Thomas M.
Eisenberg, Marisa C.
Falb, Karl
Huang, Yitao
Martin, Emily T.
McCauley, Ella
Myers, Robert L.
Schwarz, Tom
Sheldon, Daniel
Gibson, Graham C.
Yu, Rose
Gao, Liyao
Ma, Yian
Wu, Dongxia
Yan, Xifeng
Jin, Xiaoyong
Wang, Yu-Xiang
Chen, Yang Q.
Guo, Lihong
Zhao, Yanting
Gu, Quanquan
Chen, Jinghui
Wang, Lingxiao
Xu, Pan
Zhang, Weitong
Zou, Difan
Biegel, Hannah
Lega, Joceline
McConnell, Steve
Nagraj, V. P.
Guertin, Stephanie L.
Hulme-Lowe, Christopher
Turner, Stephen D.
Shi, Yunfeng
Ban, Xuegang
Walraven, Robert
Hong, Qi-Jun
Kong, Stanley
van de Walle, Axel
Turtle, James A.
Ben-Nun, Michal
Riley, Steven
Riley, Pete
Koyluoglu, Ugur
DesRoches, David
Forli, Pedro
Hamory, Bruce
Kyriakides, Christina
Leis, Helen
Milliken, John
Moloney, Michael
Morgan, James
Nirgudkar, Ninad
Ozcan, Gokce
Piwonka, Noah
Ravi, Matt
Schrader, Chris
Shakhnovich, Elizabeth
Siegel, Daniel
Spatz, Ryan
Stiefeling, Chris
Wilkinson, Barrie
Wong, Alexander
Cavany, Sean
España, Guido
Moore, Sean M.
Oidtman, Rachel
Perkins, Alex
Kraus, David
Kraus, Andrea
Gao, Zhifeng
Bian, Jiang
Cao, Wei
Lavista Ferres, Juan
Li, Chaozhuo
Liu, Tie-Yan
Xie, Xing
Zhang, Shun
Zheng, Shun
Vespignani, Alessandro
Chinazzi, Matteo
Davis, Jessica T.
Mu, Kunpeng
Pastore Y Piontti, Ana
Xiong, Xinyue
Zheng, Andrew
Baek, Jackie
Farias, Vivek
Georgescu, Andreea
Levi, Retsef
Sinha, Deeksha
Wilde, Joshua
Perakis, Georgia
Bennouna, Mohammed Amine
Nze-Ndong, David
Singhvi, Divya
Spantidakis, Ioannis
Thayaparan, Leann
Tsiourvas, Asterios
Sarker, Arnab
Jadbabaie, Ali
Shah, Devavrat
Della Penna, Nicolas
Celi, Leo A.
Sundar, Saketh
Wolfinger, Russ
Osthus, Dave
Castro, Lauren
Fairchild, Geoffrey
Michaud, Isaac
Karlen, Dean
Kinsey, Matt
Mullany, Luke C.
Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin
Shin, Lauren
Tallaksen, Katharine
Wilson, Shelby
Lee, Elizabeth C.
Dent, Juan
Grantz, Kyra H.
Hill, Alison
Kaminsky, Joshua
Kaminsky, Kathryn
Keegan, Lindsay T.
Lauer, Stephen A.
Lemaitre, Joseph C.
Lessler, Justin
Meredith, Hannah R.
Perez-Saez, Javier
Shah, Sam
Smith, Claire P.
Truelove, Shaun A.
Wills, Josh
Marshall, Maximilian
Gardner, Lauren
Nixon, Kristen
Burant, John C.
Wang, Lily
Gao, Lei
Gu, Zhiling
Kim, Myungjin
Li, Xinyi
Wang, Guannan
Wang, Yueying
Yu, Shan
Reiner, Robert C., Jr.
Barber, Ryan
Gakidou, Emmanuela
Hay, Simon I.
Lim, Steve
Murray, Chris
Pigott, David
Gurung, Heidi L.
Baccam, Prasith
Stage, Steven A.
Suchoski, Bradley T.
Prakash, B. A.
Adhikari, Bijaya
Cui, Jiaming
Rodríguez, Alexander
Tabassum, Anika
Xie, Jiajia
Keskinocak, Pinar
Asplund, John
Baxter, Arden
Oruc, Buse Eylul
Serban, Nicoleta
Arik, Sercan O.
Dusenberry, Mike
Epshteyn, Arkady
Kanal, Elli
Le, Long T.
Li, Chun-Liang
Pfister, Tomas
Sava, Dario
Sinha, Rajarishi
Tsai, Thomas
Yoder, Nate
Yoon, Jinsung
Zhang, Leyou
Abbott, Sam
Bosse, Nikos I.
Funk, Sebastian
Hellewell, Joel
Meakin, Sophie R.
Sherratt, Katharine
Zhou, Mingyuan
Kalantari, Rahi
Yamana, Teresa K.
Pei, Sen
Shaman, Jeffrey
Li, Michael L.
Bertsimas, Dimitris
Skali Lami, Omar
Soni, Saksham
Tazi Bouardi, Hamza
Ayer, Turgay
Adee, Madeline
Chhatwal, Jagpreet
Dalgic, Ozden O.
Ladd, Mary A.
Linas, Benjamin P.
Mueller, Peter
Xiao, Jade
Wang, Yuanjia
Wang, Qinxia
Xie, Shanghong
Zeng, Donglin
Green, Alden
Bien, Jacob
Brooks, Logan C.
Hu, Addison J.
Jahja, Maria
McDonald, Daniel
Narasimhan, Balasubramanian
Politsch, Collin
Rajanala, Samyak
Rumack, Aaron
Simon, Noah
Tibshirani, Ryan J.
Tibshirani, Rob
Ventura, Valerie
Wasserman, Larry
O'Dea, Eamon B.
Drake, John M.
Pagano, Robert
Tran, Quoc T.
Ho, Lam S. T.
Huynh, Huong
Walker, Jo W.
Slayton, Rachel B.
Johansson, Michael A.
Biggerstaff, Matthew
Reich, Nicholas G.