Citation
Lessler, Justin; Salje, Henrik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Ferguson, Neil M.; Cauchemez, Simon; Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel; Hakeem, Rafat; Jombart, Thibaut; Aguas, Ricardo J.; & Al-Barrak, Ali, et al. (2016). Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. American Journal of Epidemiology, 183(7), 657-663. PMCID: PMC4801139Abstract
Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452Reference Type
Journal ArticleYear Published
2016Journal Title
American Journal of EpidemiologyAuthor(s)
Lessler, JustinSalje, Henrik
Van Kerkhove, Maria D.
Ferguson, Neil M.
Cauchemez, Simon
Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel
Hakeem, Rafat
Jombart, Thibaut
Aguas, Ricardo J.
Al-Barrak, Ali
Cummings, Derek A. T., MERS-CoV Scenario and Modeling Working Group