Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika with Quantitative Models

Citation

Keegan, Lindsay T.; Lessler, Justin; & Johansson, Michael A. (2017). Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika with Quantitative Models. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 216(Suppl. 10), S884-890. PMCID: PMC5853254

Abstract

When Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, little was known about its biology, pathogenesis, and transmission potential, and the scope of the epidemic was largely hidden, owing to generally mild infections and no established surveillance systems. Surges in congenital defects and Guillain-Barré syndrome alerted the world to the danger of ZIKV. In the context of limited data, quantitative models were critical in reducing uncertainties and guiding the global ZIKV response. Here, we review some of the models used to assess the risk of ZIKV-associated severe outcomes, the potential speed and size of ZIKV epidemics, and the geographic distribution of ZIKV risk. These models provide important insights and highlight significant unresolved questions related to ZIKV and other emerging pathogens.

URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix437

Reference Type

Journal Article

Year Published

2017

Journal Title

Journal of Infectious Diseases

Author(s)

Keegan, Lindsay T.
Lessler, Justin
Johansson, Michael A.

Article Type

Regular

PMCID

PMC5853254

ORCiD

Lessler - 0000-0002-9741-8109