Citation
Takahashi, Saki; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Ferrari, Matthew J.; Moss, William J.; Truelove, Shaun A.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; & Lessler, Justin (2015). Reduced Vaccination and the Risk of Measles and Other Childhood Infections Post-Ebola. Science, 347(6227), 1240-1242. PMCID: PMC4691345Abstract
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions.URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa3438Reference Type
Journal ArticleYear Published
2015Journal Title
ScienceAuthor(s)
Takahashi, SakiMetcalf, C. Jessica E.
Ferrari, Matthew J.
Moss, William J.
Truelove, Shaun A.
Tatem, Andrew J.
Grenfell, Bryan T.
Lessler, Justin