Citation
Kucharski, Adam J.; Lessler, Justin; Cummings, Derek A. T.; & Riley, Steven (2018). Timescales of Influenza A/H3N2 Antibody Dynamics. PLOS Biology, 16(8), e2004974. PMCID: PMC6117086Abstract
Human immunity influences the evolution and impact of influenza strains. Because individuals are infected with multiple influenza strains during their lifetime, and each virus can generate a cross-reactive antibody response, it is challenging to quantify the processes that shape observed immune responses or to reliably detect recent infection from serological samples. Using a Bayesian model of antibody dynamics at multiple timescales, we explain complex cross-reactive antibody landscapes by inferring participants' histories of infection with serological data from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of influenza A/H3N2 in southern China and Vietnam. We find that individual-level influenza antibody profiles can be explained by a short-lived, broadly cross-reactive response that decays within a year to leave a smaller long-term response acting against a narrower range of strains. We also demonstrate that accounting for dynamic immune responses alongside infection history can provide a more accurate alternative to traditional definitions of seroconversion for the estimation of infection attack rates. Our work provides a general model for quantifying aspects of influenza immunity acting at multiple timescales based on contemporary serological data and suggests a two-armed immune response to influenza infection consistent with competitive dynamics between B cell populations. This approach to analysing multiple timescales for antigenic responses could also be applied to other multistrain pathogens such as dengue and related flaviviruses.URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2004974Reference Type
Journal ArticleYear Published
2018Journal Title
PLOS BiologyAuthor(s)
Kucharski, Adam J.Lessler, Justin
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Riley, Steven