Citation
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Wesolowski, Amy P.; Winter, Amy K.; Lessler, Justin; Cauchemez, Simon; Moss, William J.; McLean, Angela R.; & Grenfell, Bryan T. (2020). Using Serology to Anticipate Measles Post-Honeymoon Period Outbreaks. Trends in Microbiology, 28(8), 597-600. PMCID: PMC7167541Abstract
Measles vaccination is a public health 'best buy', with the highest cost of illness averted of any vaccine-preventable disease (Ozawa et al., Bull. WHO 2017;95:629). In recent decades, substantial reductions have been made in the number of measles cases, with an estimated 20 million deaths averted from 2000 to 2017 (Dabbagh et al., MMWR 2018;67:1323). Yet, an important feature of epidemic dynamics is that large outbreaks can occur following years of apparently successful control (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Such 'post-honeymoon period' outbreaks are a result of the nonlinear dynamics of epidemics (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Anticipating post-honeymoon outbreaks could lead to substantial gains in public health, helping to guide the timing, age-range, and location of catch-up vaccination campaigns (Grais et al., J. Roy. Soc. Interface 2008003B6:67-74). Theoretical conditions for such outbreaks are well understood for measles, yet the information required to make these calculations policy-relevant is largely lacking. We propose that a major extension of serological studies to directly characterize measles susceptibility is a high priority.URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tim.2020.04.009Reference Type
Journal ArticleYear Published
2020Journal Title
Trends in MicrobiologyAuthor(s)
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.Wesolowski, Amy P.
Winter, Amy K.
Lessler, Justin
Cauchemez, Simon
Moss, William J.
McLean, Angela R.
Grenfell, Bryan T.